The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics

In China, the health impact of cold weather has received little attention, which limits our understanding of the health impacts of climate change. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 66 communities across China from 2006 to 2011. Within each community, we estimated the effect of cold spell exposure on mortality using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). We also examined the modification effect of cold spell characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing) and individual-specific factors (causes of death, age, gender and education). Meta-analysis method was finally used to estimate the overall effects. The overall cumulative excess risk (CER) of non-accidental mortality during cold spell days was 28.2% (95% CI: 21.4%, 35.3%) compared with non-cold spell days. There was a significant increase in mortality when the cold spell duration and intensity increased or occurred earlier in the season. Cold spell effects and effect modification by cold spell characteristics were more pronounced in south China. The elderly, people with low education level and those with respiratory diseases were generally more vulnerable to cold spells. Cold spells statistically significantly increase mortality risk in China, with greater effects in southern China. This effect is modified by cold spell characteristics and individual-level factors.