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Updated: Mar 10, 2026
Multiplexed Isothermal Amplification Based Diagnostic Platform to Detect Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue 1
Published on: March 13, 2018
Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus
Sebastian Funk1,2, Adam J Kucharski1,2, Anton Camacho1,2
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Abstract:
The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. In outbreaks on small islands, the susceptible population is usually well defined, and there is no co-circulation of pathogens. Because of this, analysing such outbreaks can be useful for understanding the transmission dynamics of the pathogens involved, and particularly so for yet understudied pathogens such as Zika virus. Here, we compared three outbreaks of dengue and Zika virus in two different island settings in Micronesia, the Yap Main Islands and Fais, using a mathematical model of transmission dynamics and making full use of commonalities in disease and setting between the outbreaks. We found that the estimated reproduction numbers for Zika and dengue were similar when considered in the same setting, but that, conversely, reproduction number for the same disease can vary considerably by setting. On the Yap Main Islands, we estimated a reproduction number of 8.0-16 (95% Credible Interval (CI)) for the dengue outbreak and 4.8-14 (95% CI) for the Zika outbreak, whereas for the dengue outbreak on Fais our estimate was 28-102 (95% CI). We further found that the proportion of cases of Zika reported was smaller (95% CI 1.4%-1.9%) than that of dengue (95% CI: 47%-61%). We confirmed these results in extensive sensitivity analysis. They suggest that models for dengue transmission can be useful for estimating the predicted dynamics of Zika transmission, but care must be taken when extrapolating findings from one setting to another.
Insights
Mathematical models reveal that dengue and Zika virus transmission dynamics vary by location in Micronesia. Comparing outbreaks showed disease reproduction numbers are similar in the same setting but differ across locations.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Tropical Medicine
Background:
- Mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and Zika virus have caused outbreaks in Micronesia.
- Small island outbreaks offer defined populations for studying disease transmission dynamics, especially for understudied viruses like Zika.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the transmission dynamics of dengue and Zika virus outbreaks in two distinct Micronesian island settings.
- To utilize mathematical modeling to analyze disease transmission and estimate reproduction numbers.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of three dengue and Zika virus outbreaks in Yap Main Islands and Fais, Micronesia.
- Application of a mathematical model to assess transmission dynamics and estimate reproduction numbers (R0).
- Sensitivity analysis to confirm the robustness of the findings.
Main Results:
- Reproduction numbers for Zika and dengue were similar within the same island setting but varied significantly between different settings.
- On Yap Main Islands, R0 estimates were 8.0-16 for dengue and 4.8-14 for Zika.
- On Fais, the R0 estimate for dengue was substantially higher at 28-102.
- The proportion of reported Zika cases was significantly lower (1.4%-1.9%) compared to dengue (47%-61%).
Conclusions:
- Mathematical models for dengue transmission can inform predictions of Zika virus dynamics.
- Disease transmission is highly dependent on the specific island setting, necessitating caution when extrapolating findings.
- Understanding setting-specific transmission is crucial for effective public health interventions against mosquito-borne diseases.
