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Actuarial aging rate is not constant within the human life span
A L Ekonomov1, C L Rudd, A J Lomakin
1Anti-Aging Group, InterConcepts, Inc., Budapest, Hungary.
Gerontology
|January 1, 1989
Summary
The actuarial aging rate is not constant after age 40. This study reveals distinct patterns for males and females, challenging common assumptions about human population aging.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Gerontology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- The common assumption of exponential mortality growth after 40 implies a constant actuarial aging rate.
- This assumption is frequently modeled using Gompertz or Gompertz-Makeham formulas.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the validity of the constant actuarial aging rate assumption in the modern human population.
- To analyze age-specific mortality patterns in US males and females.
Main Methods:
- Calculation of local aging rate values across 13 age ranges (30-92 years).
- Analysis of mortality data for the male and female populations of 48 US states (1969-1971).
Main Results:
- Male aging rates generally decrease monotonically with age.
- Female aging rates exhibit a U-shaped pattern, with a minimum between 45-60 years and a maximum between 70-80 years.
Conclusions:
- The actuarial aging rate is not constant after age 40 in the studied population.
- Findings caution against the universal application of Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham models for population-level human aging.
- Sex-specific mortality dynamics require nuanced modeling beyond simple exponential growth assumptions.