Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values: A case study in Changsha, Middle...

Area of Science:

• Ecological economics
• Environmental management
• Spatial planning

Background:

• Land-use change significantly impacts ecosystem services values (ESVs).
• Current land use decisions often lack robust integration of ESVs for future benefit and risk assessment.
• Optimizing ecological conservation investment requires balancing expected benefits against inherent uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and demonstrate a method integrating ESVs to optimize land investment for ecological conservation within land use planning.
• To quantify the trade-offs between expected ecosystem service benefits and the risks associated with land-use change uncertainty.
• To guide decision-making for effective allocation of conservation investments.

Main Methods:

• Developed a method that treats ESVs as expected ecosystem service benefits and land-use change uncertainty as risk.
• Applied the method to ecological conservation planning in Changsha, considering investment allocation.
• Utilized optimization analysis to identify spatial investment strategies balancing benefit and risk.

Main Results:

• Identified that investment in Liuyang City could yield higher benefits but also carries higher risk.
• Demonstrated that shifting investment from Liuyang City to other regions can effectively reduce overall risk.
• Highlighted the importance of setting investment weight distribution limits for optimal outcomes.

Conclusions:

• The developed method effectively optimizes investment allocation to maximize expected ecosystem service benefits at a given risk level or minimize risk for a target benefit.
• Optimal spatial allocation of investment is crucial for balancing future ecosystem service benefits with land-use change uncertainties in decision-making.
• The findings provide a practical framework for land use planning and ecological conservation investment strategies.