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Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals
Chiyori T Urabe1, Gouhei Tanaka1,2, Kazuyuki Aihara1,2
1Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Plos One
|December 16, 2016
Summary
Human mobility significantly impacts infectious disease spread. This study introduces an index to predict epidemic size based on mobility, showing a link between travel and influenza B outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Network Science
Background:
- Infectious diseases spread globally, influenced by pathogen traits and human behavior.
- The impact of individual mobility patterns on epidemic outcomes remains unclear.
- Understanding spatial spread is crucial for global health security.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how individual spatial mobility affects the final epidemic size.
- To develop a predictive index for epidemic outcomes in a spatial Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model.
- To quantify the relationship between mobility and disease spread.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a spatial SEIR model on a square lattice with mobile individuals.
- Analyzed the interplay between mobility parameters and epidemic dynamics.
- Developed a novel index based on system parameters to predict final epidemic size.
Main Results:
- Proposed an index that effectively governs the final epidemic size.
- Demonstrated the index's utility in estimating parameter scaling effects.
- Found a positive correlation between the index (using airline travel data) and global Influenza B cases.
Conclusions:
- Individual mobility is a key driver of epidemic size.
- The developed index offers a valuable tool for predicting disease spread.
- Increased human mobility contributes to the global incidence of diseases like Influenza B.
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