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Predicting the need for vascular surgeons in Canada.

Shamim Lotfi1, Prasad Jetty1, William Petrcich2

  • 1Division of Vascular Surgery, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Department of Vascular Surgery, The Ottawa Hospital, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

Journal of Vascular Surgery
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Area of Science:

  • Vascular Surgery Workforce Planning
  • Medical Education and Training
  • Healthcare Resource Allocation

Background:

  • Introduction of direct entry (0+5) residency programs alongside traditional (5+2) programs will increase Canadian vascular surgery graduates.
  • The societal demand for these new surgeons is not well-defined.
  • Accurate forecasting of future needs is crucial for effective healthcare planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the projected requirement for vascular surgeons in Canada up to 2021.
  • To assess program directors' perceptions of the new 0+5 residency model.
  • To understand faculty recruitment and retirement trends in vascular surgery.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Canadian Socio-economic Information and Management System (CANSIM) for population data (2013-2021).
  • Analyzed Canadian Institute for Health Information Discharge Abstract Database for vascular surgery procedures (2008-2012).
  • Employed two validated methods for future need calculation: population analysis and workload analysis.
  • Conducted a survey of all Canadian vascular surgery program directors.

Main Results:

  • Population analysis predicted a surplus of 10 vascular surgeons by 2021.
  • Workload analysis, accounting for the aging population (60+ years) and higher procedure rates, predicted a deficit of 11 vascular surgeons by 2021.
  • Program directors hold a positive view of 0+5 residents' skills, with most programs planning to recruit new surgeons.

Conclusions:

  • Workload analysis provides a more accurate prediction of future vascular surgeon needs due to the growing elderly population requiring more procedures.
  • A deficit of vascular surgeons is anticipated, highlighting the need for newly graduating surgeons in the coming years.
  • Findings may influence resource allocation for vascular surgery training programs in Canada.