An Antiestrogenic Activity Score for tamoxifen and its metabolites is associated with breast cancer outcome

Endoxifen concentrations have been associated with breast cancer recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients. However, tamoxifen itself and other metabolites also show antiestrogenic anti-tumor activity. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a comprehensive Antiestrogenic Activity Score (AAS), which accounts for concentration and antiestrogenic activity of tamoxifen and three metabolites. An association between the AAS and recurrence-free survival was investigated and compared to a previously published threshold for endoxifen concentrations of 5.97 ng/mL.

The antiestrogenic activities of tamoxifen, (Z)-endoxifen, (Z)-4-hydroxytamoxifen, and N-desmethyltamoxifen were determined in a cell proliferation assay. The AAS was determined by calculating the sum of each metabolite concentration multiplied by an IC₅₀ ratio, relative to tamoxifen. The AAS was calculated for 1370 patients with estrogen receptor alpha (ERα)-positive breast cancer. An association between AAS and recurrence was investigated using Cox regression and compared with the 5.97 ng/mL endoxifen threshold using concordance indices.

An AAS threshold of 1798 was associated with recurrence-free survival, hazard ratio (HR) 0.67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.96), bias corrected after bootstrap HR 0.69 (95% CI 0.48-0.99). The concordance indices for AAS and endoxifen did not significantly differ; however, using the AAS threshold instead of endoxifen led to different dose recommendations for 5.2% of the patients.

Endoxifen concentrations can serve as a proxy for the antiestrogenic effect of tamoxifen and metabolites. However, for the aggregate effect of tamoxifen and three metabolites, defined by an integrative algorithm, a trend towards improving treatment is seen and moreover, is significantly associated with breast cancer recurrence.