Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands

Area of Science:

• Urbanization and Land Use Change
• Agricultural Science
• Global Environmental Change

Background:

• Urban expansion frequently encroaches upon agricultural lands, yet global patterns and impacts remain poorly understood.
• Understanding the effects of future urban growth on cultivated areas is crucial for global food security.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify projected global cropland loss due to urban expansion by 2030.
• To analyze the regional disparities and productivity of croplands affected by urbanization.
• To assess the implications for crop production and livelihoods.

Main Methods:

• Integration of spatially explicit urban expansion projections with global cropland and crop yield datasets.
• Analysis of projected cropland loss percentages and absolute values by region.
• Estimation of the productivity of croplands susceptible to urban development.

Main Results:

• Global cropland loss of 1.8-2.4% is projected by 2030 due to urban expansion.
• Approximately 80% of this loss will occur in Asia and Africa, on lands more than twice as productive as national averages.
• Croplands lost were responsible for 3-4% of global crop production in 2000, with affected areas being 1.77 times more productive than the global average.

Conclusions:

• Urban expansion poses a significant threat to global croplands, particularly in Asia and Africa, impacting food production and livelihoods.
• The loss of highly productive agricultural land necessitates strategic urban planning and governance, especially in the Global South.
• Effective governance of urban area expansion is critical for safeguarding agrarian economies and ensuring sustainable livelihoods.