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Vector-Borne Pathogen and Host Evolution in a Structured Immuno-Epidemiological System.

Hayriye Gulbudak1, Vincent L Cannataro2, Necibe Tuncer3

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study models vector-borne disease evolution, finding pathogens evolve to maximize transmission and hosts to minimize mortality. Vector inoculum size impacts pathogen spread and virulence in complex ways.

Keywords:
Age-since-infectionCoevolutionary attractorDifferential equationsImmuno-epidemiological modelingReproduction numberRift Valley feverTrade-offsVector inoculum sizeVector-borne pathogenWest Nile virusWithin-host dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Immunology
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Vector-borne diseases spread via pathogens transmitted by vectors.
  • Within-host pathogen-immune system interactions influence disease transmission and evolution.
  • Limited theoretical research exists on virulence-transmission trade-offs in vector-borne systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an immuno-epidemiological model linking within-host dynamics to between-host transmission of vector-borne diseases.
  • To investigate evolutionary optimization principles for pathogens and hosts in these systems.
  • To analyze the impact of vector inoculum size on pathogen virulence and host mortality.

Main Methods:

  • Developed an age-since-infection structured host-vector-borne pathogen epidemic model.
  • Incorporated antibody-pathogen dynamics relevant to arboviruses.
  • Analyzed multiple pathogen strains and competing host populations with varying immune responses.

Main Results:

  • Pathogen evolution favors maximizing the basic reproduction number (R0).
  • Host evolution favors minimizing the case fatality ratio (CFR).
  • Increased vector inoculum size enhances pathogen R0 but has variable effects on virulence (CFR).

Conclusions:

  • Evolutionary principles of R0 maximization for pathogens and CFR minimization for hosts apply to vector-borne diseases.
  • Vector inoculum size plays a multifaceted role in shaping vector-borne disease virulence.
  • The model provides insights into the co-evolution of hosts and vector-borne pathogens.