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Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons
Jung Jeung Lee1, Nam Hee Park2, Kun Sei Lee3
1Department of Preventive Medicine, Keimyung University School of Medicine.
Insights
Demand for cardiovascular surgeries is rising due to an aging population, but the supply of surgeons is declining. This study forecasts a significant imbalance, highlighting the need for policy intervention to address future healthcare needs.
Area of Science:
- Healthcare Policy
- Surgical Workforce Analysis
- Public Health
Background:
- Increasing prevalence of cardiovascular diseases driven by an aging population.
- Declining supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons over the past decade.
- Growing demand for cardiovascular surgeries necessitates policy guidance.
Purpose of the Study:
- Analyze the supply and demand dynamics of cardiovascular surgeries in Korea.
- Project future trends in surgical demand and surgeon availability.
- Inform healthcare policy for sustainable cardiovascular surgical services.
Main Methods:
- Utilized National Health Insurance claim data for surgery volume analysis.
- Estimated future surgical demand using a cell-based model based on elderly population statistics.
- Projected surgeon supply using scenario-based analysis considering new surgeons and retirement rates.
Main Results:
- Cardiovascular surgery demand projected to increase by 46.5% to 15,501 cases by 2040.
- Surgeon supply is projected to decrease by 24.9% by 2040, despite an increase in active surgeons.
- A significant demand-supply imbalance is forecasted across all analyzed scenarios.
Conclusions:
- Cardiovascular surgeons are critical for specialized surgical services.
- Fostering an adequate surgeon workforce requires substantial time, effort, and resources.
- Policy interventions are crucial to address market distribution failures and ensure appropriate surgeon supply.
Background:
While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea.
Methods:
After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected.
Results:
The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040-an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309-an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario.
Conclusion:
Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by analyzing the various factors affecting the supply of cardiovascular surgeons, an active intervention of policies can be prescribed for the areas that have failed to meet the appropriate market distributions.
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