[Outcome predictors for COPD patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation]

Prognostic factors for clinical failure of acute exacerbation in patients with COPD (AECOPD) are of special importance in order to choose an adequate therapy and resources during inpatient treatment. Our database was analyzed to identify predictors for a negative outcome.

In a retrospective analysis medical records of 616 patients (299 women; 317 men) hospitalized for AECOPD between January 2011 and January 2016 were analyzed in order to evaluate demographic and clinical parameters leading to adverse events. Only the first admission was considered. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relative risk (odds ratio (OR) leading to severe adverse events such as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation (invasive or noninvasive), early readmission to ICU and hospital and death).

An increased risk of an ICU admission was found for patients with a coronary heart disease (OR = 5.734; p = 0.009) and for patients requiring an antibiotic therapy (OR = 11.721; p = 0.003). An increased risk for rehospitalisation and mortality was found for age (OR = 1.034; p = 0.028) and a longer duration of the hospital stay (OR = 1.063; p = 0.042). A lower C‑reactive protein (CRP) level was associated with a lower risk of readmission to the hospital (OR = 0.991; p = 0.03). An increased risk of ventilator therapy was found for patients with chronic heart failure (OR = 6.166; p = 0.02) and sleep apnea syndrome (OR = 6.698; p = 0.003), diabetes (OR = 3.754; p = 0.041) and a long stay in the ICU (OR = 2.018; p = 0.000).

Comorbidities in patients with AECOPD were found to be a major risk factor for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. Elderly patients and patients with prolonged hospital stay showed a higher risk for readmission and mortality. Patients with a low CRP blood level seemed to have a lower risk for rehospitalisation.