A simple score for early risk stratification in acute heart failure

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Clinical Risk Stratification
• Acute Heart Failure

Background:

• Existing acute heart failure (AHF) risk scores are often complex and cumbersome for clinical use.
• There is a need for a simple and effective tool for early risk stratification in AHF patients.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a simple Acute Heart Failure Risk Score (AHFRS) for early risk stratification.
• To assess the discriminative ability of the AHFRS in predicting 1-year mortality or rehospitalization in AHF patients.

Main Methods:

• A prospective derivation cohort (PDC) and a retrospective validation cohort (RVC) were utilized.
• Clinical, echocardiographic, and laboratory data were collected at admission.
• The study endpoint was defined as all-cause death or heart failure rehospitalization within 1 year.

Main Results:

• Independent predictors for the endpoint were identified as: absence of hypertension history, presence of myocardial infarction history, and admission red cell distribution width (RDW) ≥15%.
• The AHFRS was developed assigning points for these factors, with higher scores indicating greater risk.
• The AHFRS demonstrated high discriminative ability in both the PDC (AUC 0.80) and RVC (AUC 0.82).

Conclusions:

• The developed AHFRS is easily obtainable upon admission for acute heart failure.
• The AHFRS accurately stratifies risk in AHF patients, aiding in early clinical decision-making.