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The consequences of understanding expert probability reporting as a decision
A Biedermann1, S Bozza2, F Taroni1
1University of Lausanne, School of Criminal Justice, 1015 Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland.
Science & Justice : Journal of the Forensic Science Society
|January 9, 2017
Summary
The personalist interpretation of probability is essential for forensic scientists. Decision theory supports reporting probabilities as single numbers, not intervals, for clearer communication of imperfect knowledge.
Area of Science:
- Decision theory
- Forensic science
- Probability theory
Background:
- The interpretation of probability in forensic science is debated.
- Reporting subjective or personal knowledge presents challenges.
- Existing methods for probability reporting may lack rigor.
Purpose of the Study:
- To argue for the inevitability and validity of the personalist interpretation of probability.
- To frame the reporting of imperfect knowledge by forensic scientists as a decision problem.
- To advocate for single-number probability reporting over intervals.
Main Methods:
- Reiteration of the personalist interpretation of probability.
- Reconstruction of forensic probability reporting as a decision problem.
- Rigorous decision theoretic analysis.
Main Results:
- The personalist interpretation of probability is as valid as objective interpretations.
- Forensic scientists' reporting of uncertain knowledge can be analyzed using decision theory.
- Optimal probability reporting involves single numbers, not intervals.
Conclusions:
- The personalist view of probability is robust and applicable to forensic contexts.
- Decision theory provides a framework for understanding and improving probability reporting in forensics.
- Single-number probability reporting is recommended for clarity and optimal decision-making.
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