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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Mar 8, 2026

Double-Staining Method to Detect Pectin in Plant-Fungus Interaction
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Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

Daniel P Bebber1, Ángela Delgado Castillo2, Sarah J Gurr2,3

  • 1Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter EX4 4QD, UK d.p.bebber@exeter.ac.uk.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
|January 13, 2017
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change did not increase coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia. High-resolution climate data revealed no overall trend, though a 2008-2011 outbreak risk was noted. Further data investment is crucial for disease modeling.

Keywords:
climate changeclimate reanalysiscoffee leaf rustepidemiologyfood securityplant pathology

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Area of Science:

  • Plant pathology and climate science.
  • Agricultural meteorology and disease forecasting.

Background:

  • Global climate change impacts fungal plant diseases, but modeling is hindered by microclimate data limitations.
  • High-resolution climate reanalyses offer potential solutions for accurate pathogen-relevant microclimate estimation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test if climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR) outbreak in Colombia.
  • To demonstrate the utility of climate reanalyses in plant disease modeling.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a germination and infection risk model for CLR (Hemileia vastatrix).
  • Utilized leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature data from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55).
  • Modeled disease risk using Weibull functions based on experimental data.

Main Results:

  • No evidence of an overall increasing trend in CLR disease risk in Colombia from 1990-2015.
  • A significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk occurred between 2008-2011.
  • JRA-55 data indicated reduced canopy surface water post-2008, potentially ending the outbreak.

Conclusions:

  • The climate change hypothesis for the 2008-2011 CLR outbreak is rejected.
  • Climate reanalyses are valuable tools for biological modeling, with improving spatial resolution and accuracy.
  • Enhanced investment in plant disease observation data is essential to complement high-quality climate data.