Predicting brain metastases for non-small cell lung cancer based on magnetic resonance imaging

In this study the relationship between brain structure and brain metastases (BM) occurrence was analyzed. A model for predicting the time of BM onset in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was proposed. Twenty patients were used to develop the model, whereas the remaining 69 were used for independent validation and verification of the model. Magnetic resonance images were segmented into cerebrospinal fluid, gray matter (GM), and white matter using voxel-based morphometry. Automatic anatomic labeling template was used to extract 116 brain regions from the GM volume. The elapsed time between the MRI acquisitions and BM diagnosed was analyzed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method. The model was validated using the leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) and permutation test. The GM volume of the extracted 11 regions of interest increased with the progression of BM from NSCLC. LOOCV test on the model indicated that the measured and predicted BM onset were highly correlated (r = 0.834, P = 0.0000). For the 69 independent validating patients, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model for predicting BM occurrence were 70, 75, and 66%, respectively, in 6 months and 74, 82, and 60%, respectively, in 1 year. The extracted brain GM volumes and interval times for BM occurrence were correlated. The established model based on MRI data may reliably predict BM in 6 months or 1 year. Further studies with larger sample size are needed to validate the findings in a clinical setting.