Early Predictors of Students at Risk of Poor PANCE Performance.

Area of Science:

• Medical Education
• Health Professions Education

Background:

• Physician Assistant (PA) programs face challenges in identifying students at risk of failing the Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE).
• Early identification allows for timely intervention and targeted support to improve student outcomes.
• Existing literature suggests foundational coursework performance may predict PANCE success.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify early curriculum-based predictors of PANCE performance within PA programs.
• To enable early intervention for students identified as "at risk" of PANCE failure.

Main Methods:

• Secondary data analysis of student performance data from a PA program.
• Data collected across multiple school years (2003-2014) from a large university.

Main Results:

• Path analysis revealed that grades in foundational coursework were the most significant early predictors of PANCE performance.
• Foundational coursework grades explained over 50% of the variance in PANCE outcomes.

Conclusions:

• While admission criteria offer some predictive value, foundational coursework performance is a superior early indicator of PANCE success.
• Remediation efforts should focus on students experiencing difficulties in first-year foundational courses.
• Targeted support can enhance the likelihood of students passing the PANCE.