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Spatial Multiobjective Optimization of Agricultural Conservation Practices using a SWAT Model and an Evolutionary Algorithm

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Published on: December 9, 2012

Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems.

Md Sarwar Hossain¹, John A Dearing¹, Felix Eigenbrod²

¹Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

The Science of the Total Environment

|January 28, 2017

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

The Bangladesh delta

Keywords:

Safe operating space Social-ecological system and sustainable development System dynamic

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Area of Science:

Systems dynamics modeling
Regional environmental science
Social-ecological systems analysis

Background:

Operationalizing the safe operating space concept at a regional scale is crucial for sustainable development.
Understanding complex dynamics like non-linearity and feedbacks is essential for regional system management.
The Bangladesh delta faces multifaceted challenges including climate change and policy impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

To operationalize the safe operating space concept for the Bangladesh delta's social-ecological system.
To explore the impact of combined stressors, such as subsidy withdrawal and climate change, on regional sustainability.
To identify strategies for maintaining the system within its safe operating boundaries.

Main Methods:

Utilized a systems dynamic (SD) model to simulate regional social-ecological dynamics.
Developed and analyzed eight 'what if' scenarios based on climate change and policy debates.
Quantified the potential for crossing safe operating space thresholds under various conditions.

Main Results:

A 50% agricultural subsidy withdrawal combined with 2°C warming and sea-level rise pushes the Bangladesh delta beyond its safe operating space.
Reduced upstream Ganges discharge exacerbates the risk, leading to a dangerous zone at 3.5°C warming.
Identified key drivers pushing the system towards unsafe conditions.

Conclusions:

Managing feedback loops, biophysical variables, transboundary water resources, and global policies is vital for regional resilience.
The study demonstrates the practical application of tipping points and adaptation limits in real-world systems.
Policy revisions and adaptive management are necessary to ensure sustainable development in the Bangladesh delta.