Probabilistic risk analysis of mercury intake via food consumption in Spain

In Spain, recently, the public institutions have given information to the population in relation to fish consumption and the risk that it poses to health from the ingestion of mercury supposedly contained in the fish. At the same time, several scientific societies have published various works in this direction. All this without there being, up to now, any study on the evaluation of a probabilistic risk from mercury due to fish and seafood intake in Spain, which is the objective of this present work. For that purpose, we took individual data from a survey of the total diet of 3000 people, whose consumption of the principal fish and seafood species (49) was estimated. We compiled individualized data (2000) on the total mercury content of those species, which were completed and validated with bibliographic statistical data. After estimating the distributions of each fish and seafood species, both of their consumption and their mercury content, a simulation was made of the distribution of mercury ingestion from fish and seafood offered by 2.6% of the Spanish population at risk of exceeding total mercury recommendations, and between 12.2% and 21.2% of those exceeding methylmercury ones. The main species responsible were tuna fish, swordfish and hake, and significant differences were identified in fish consumption between sexes and ages, although, in the risk percentage, what stands out is an increase in the latter with an increase in age.