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A Bayesian estimation approach for the mortality in a stage-structured demographic model.

E Lanzarone1, S Pasquali2, G Gilioli3

  • 1CNR-IMATI, Via A. Corti 12, 20133, Milan, Italy.

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|January 29, 2017
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Summary

This study introduces a Bayesian method to estimate pest mortality rates using population data. This approach aids sustainable pest management by modeling population dynamics for pests like the grape berry moth.

Keywords:
Bayesian inferenceFokker–Plank equationsLobesia botranaMCMC algorithmsPestPopulation dynamics

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Agricultural Science

Background:

  • Sustainable pest management relies on accurate pest phenology and population data.
  • Mathematical models are crucial for understanding pest population dynamics based on life history traits.
  • Estimating mortality parameters, especially extrinsic factors, often lacks sufficient experimental data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a Bayesian approach for estimating probability density functions of parameters in the extrinsic mortality rate function.
  • To investigate temporal variability in mortality parameters using population abundance data.
  • To provide a method for estimating pest mortality when laboratory data are unavailable.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a Bayesian inference framework to estimate extrinsic mortality parameters.
  • Employed population abundance data to derive parameter probability density functions.
  • Compared simulated population trajectories with observed field data to assess parameter time variability.

Main Results:

  • Successfully estimated extrinsic mortality parameters for the grape berry moth using field data.
  • Validated the Bayesian algorithm's convergence using simulated data.
  • Demonstrated the method's applicability to real-world pest management scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed Bayesian approach effectively estimates time-varying mortality parameters from field population data.
  • This method enhances the accuracy of population dynamics models for sustainable pest management.
  • The study provides valuable insights into the mortality of the grape berry moth, a significant vineyard pest.