Prognostic prediction in acute heart failure patients with extreme BNP values

Some patients have good prognosis despite elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), while others have ominous outcome with low BNP. We aimed at characterising these groups of patients.

We analysed patients prospectively included in an acute HF registry. Vital status within 1-year post discharge was ascertained. A receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to define discharge BNP cut-offs for 1-year death prediction. Among survivors, we compared patients with low and not-low BNP (cut-off 400 pg/mL); and among non-survivors those with high vs not-high BNP (cut-off 2000 pg/mL). In the specific subgroups of patients with low and high BNP, mortality predictors were assessed with multivariate Cox-regression analysis.

We studied 584 patients, median age 78 years, 62.5% had HF with reduced ejection fraction; and 199 (34.1%) died during the first year. Non-survivors were very homogeneous irrespective of BNP, survivors were substantially different. In patients discharged with BNP <400 pg/mL, increasing age independently predicted death; when BNP ≥2000 pg/mL death predictors were higher NYHA class, and non-use of evidence-based therapy. BNP was outcome associated in both groups.

Different prognostic predictors may play a role in different BNP levels. We suggest that risk stratification in HF would probably be more accurate if made on top of BNP knowledge.