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Models for the Economics of Resilience
Stanley Gilbert1, Bilal M Ayyub2
1National Institute of Standards and Technology, 100 Bureau Drive, MS 8603, Gaithersburg, MD 20899. stanley.gilbert@NIST.gov.
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems. Part A, Civil Engineering
|January 31, 2017
Summary
This study introduces microeconomic models to assess disaster resilience, crucial for reducing economic losses and improving recovery. These models help enhance system resilience and meet target levels, saving billions in damages.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Disaster Management
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Natural disasters in 2011 caused $366 billion in damages and nearly 30,000 fatalities globally.
- Average annual losses in the United States are approximately $55 billion.
- Effective disaster management necessitates robust models for economic burden estimation and resilience enhancement.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and compare microeconomic models for assessing the economics of resilience.
- To examine the sensitivity of these models to key parameters.
- To illustrate the practical applications of these models in improving system resilience.
Main Methods:
- Development of microeconomic models tailored for disaster resilience.
- Comparative analysis of different modeling approaches.
- Sensitivity analysis to identify critical parameters influencing resilience economics.
Main Results:
- The proposed models provide a framework for quantifying the economic impact of disasters.
- Model sensitivity analysis reveals key factors for effective resilience strategies.
- Demonstrated utility of models in guiding decisions for risk reduction and recovery.
Conclusions:
- Appropriate microeconomic models are essential for accurately estimating the economic burden of disasters.
- Implementing these models can significantly enhance community and system resilience.
- The study provides tools to improve system resiliency and meet predefined target levels, leading to substantial economic savings.
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