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A case at last for age-phased reduction in equity
1Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge 02139.
Abstract:
Maximizing expected utility over a lifetime leads one who has constant relative risk aversion and faces random-walk securities returns to be "myopic" and hold the same fraction of portfolio in equities early and late in life--a defiance of folk wisdom and casual introspection. By assuming one needs to assure at retirement a minimum ("subsistence") level of wealth, the present analysis deduces a pattern of greater risk-taking when young than when old. When a subsistence minimum is needed at every period of life, the rentier paradoxically is least risk tolerant in youth--the Robert C. Merton paradox that traces to the decline with age of the present discounted value of the subsistence-consumption requirements. Conversely, the decline with age of capitalized human capital reverses the Merton effect.
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