Impact of dose escalation and adaptive radiotherapy for cervical cancers on tumour shrinkage-a modelling study

Tumour shrinkage occurs during fractionated radiotherapy and is regulated by radiation induced cellular damage, repopulation of viable cells and clearance of dead cells. In some cases additional tumour shrinkage during external beam therapy may be beneficial, particularly for locally advanced cervical cancer where a small tumour volume may simplify and improve brachytherapy. In the current work, a mathematical tumour model is utilized to investigate how local dose escalation affects tumour shrinkage, focusing on implications for brachytherapy. The iterative two-compartment model is based upon linear-quadratic radiation response, a doubling time for viable cells and a half-time for clearance of dead cells. The model was individually fitted to clinical tumour volume data from fractionated radiotherapy of 25 cervical cancer patients. Three different fractionation patterns for dose escalation, all with an additional dose of 12.2 Gy, were simulated and compared to standard fractionation in terms of tumour shrinkage. An adaptive strategy where dose escalation was initiated after one week of treatment was also considered. For 22 out of 25 patients, a good model fit was achieved to the observed tumour shrinkage. A large degree of inter-patient variation was seen in predicted volume reduction following dose escalation. For the 10 best responding patients, a mean tumour volume reduction of 34  ±  3% (relative to standard treatment) was estimated at the time of brachytherapy. Timing of initiating dose escalation had a larger impact than the number of fractions applied. In conclusion, the model was found useful in evaluating the impact from dose escalation on tumour shrinkage. The results indicate that dose escalation could be conducted from the start of external beam radiotherapy in order to obtain additional tumour shrinkage before brachytherapy.