Characterizing the detectability of emission signals from a North Korean nuclear detonation

The detectability of emission sources, defined by a low-level of mixing with other sources, was estimated for various locations surrounding the Sea of Japan, including a site within North Korea. A high-resolution meteorological model coupled to a dispersion model was used to simulate plume dynamics for four periods, and two metrics of airborne plume mixing were calculated for each source. While emissions from several known sources in this area tended to blend with others while dispersing downwind, the North Korean plume often remained relatively distinct, thereby making it potentially easier to unambiguously 'backtrack' it to its source.