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Human mobility in large cities as a proxy for crime.

Carlos Caminha1, Vasco Furtado1, Tarcisio H C Pequeno1

  • 1Programa de Pós Graduação em Informática Aplicada, Universidade de Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brasil.

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Property crime rates correlate with a city's floating population, not its residents. This superlinear relationship suggests more crime occurs where more people move, unlike peace disturbance crimes linked to residents.

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Area of Science:

  • Urban Criminology
  • Network Science
  • Statistical Analysis

Background:

  • Understanding crime patterns is crucial for urban planning and public safety.
  • Previous studies on crime and population have focused on city-scale resident populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between property crime incidence and both resident and floating populations at a subcity scale.
  • To compare crime-population dynamics for property crimes versus peace disturbance crimes.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of property crime and peace disturbance data within city neighborhoods.
  • Statistical modeling to identify allometric relationships between crime types and population metrics (resident vs. floating).

Main Results:

  • Property crimes show a significant superlinear relationship with the floating population, indicating disproportionate incidence in high-traffic areas.
  • Peace disturbance crimes correlate superlinearly with the resident population.
  • No significant allometric relation was found between property crimes and resident population.

Conclusions:

  • The floating population, rather than the resident population, may be the key factor driving property crime dynamics at a micro-level.
  • This finding offers a new perspective on urban crime scaling, potentially explaining previous city-scale observations for other crime types like homicide.