Short-Term Clinical Response to Corticosteroids Can Predict Long-Term Natural History of Ulcerative Colitis:...

Long-term outcome and natural history of steroid response in adult ulcerative colitis patients based on short-term response is largely unknown.

To evaluate whether short-term clinical response at 30  days after steroid initiation for moderate to severe disease can predict long-term outcome.

This prospective observational study recruited 161 patients who received oral/intravenous steroid therapy at our institution from April 2005 to July 2009. Short-term response at 30 days and long-term response at the end of first and third years were measured. Risk factors for long-term outcome at 1 and 3 years were analyzed by multivariate regression model.

At the end of 30 days, 90 patients (55.9%) had complete response, 47 (29.2%) partial response, and 24 (14.9%) did not respond at all. At the end of first year, 53/90 (60%) complete responders (at 30 days) maintained steroid-free remission when compared to 17/71 (23.9%, p < 0.001) partial/no responders. Similar result was observed at the end of third year (74.7 vs 55.1%, p = 0.017). On multivariable analysis, short-term outcome at 30 days was a predictor of outcome at the end of one year (RR 4.1, 95% CI 2.2-8.5) and 3 years (RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.02-4.5).

Short-term response to steroids is a strong predictor of long-term outcome at 1 and 3 years in active ulcerative colitis patients.