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Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.

Jingya Liu1, Jing Li1, Keyu Qin2

  • 1College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, 710062 Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.

The Science of the Total Environment
|February 17, 2017
PubMed
Summary

China's rapid development strains ecosystems, impacting living environments. Our study models land-use change and ecosystem services under climate and policy scenarios to guide sustainable development.

Keywords:
Ecosystem servicesGuanzhong-Tianshui economic regionLand change modelerLand-useScenario

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Research

Background:

  • China's rapid economic development over 30 years has led to increased natural resource use, damaging ecosystem self-regulation and living environments.
  • Ecosystem degradation necessitates understanding the impacts of climate change and policy interventions on natural resources.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To simulate and analyze land-use change and its effects on ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region by 2050.
  • To assess the trade-offs and synergies among carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and water yields under various future scenarios.
  • To provide a basis for sustainable ecosystem development in China.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Report.
  • Incorporated policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy.
  • Employed Land Change Modeler in IDRISI software for land-use simulation and analysis, quantifying ecosystem services using ecosystem models.

Main Results:

  • Global climate change significantly influences future land-use patterns.
  • Carbon sequestration, water yield, and soil conservation exhibit a mutual relationship within the study region.
  • Both climate change and policy implementation demonstrably impact ecosystem services.

Conclusions:

  • Land-use change driven by climate and policy significantly affects ecosystem services.
  • Understanding the interplay between climate, policy, and ecosystem services is crucial for regional sustainable development.
  • The findings offer a reference for future research and policy-making to achieve ecosystem sustainability.