Emerging Infectious Diseases, Animals, and Future Epidemics.

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Infectious Diseases
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases have increased in the United States since the 1970s.
• These diseases cause significant illness, mortality, and public apprehension.
• Previous outbreaks like Ebola and Zika highlight the need for proactive prediction and preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review the literature on risk factors for acquiring infectious diseases.
• To predict the characteristics of the next major microbial threat in the US.
• To inform public health strategies for managing emerging infections.

Main Methods:

• A comprehensive review of published literature on emerging and reemerging infectious diseases.
• Analysis of factors contributing to disease acquisition and transmission.
• Forecasting future pathogen emergence based on identified trends.

Main Results:

• Four key factors are identified as simultaneously contributing to disease emergence: animal reservoirs with zoonotic potential, microbial virulence evolution, increased human susceptibility, and favorable climatic/environmental conditions.
• The next significant emerging pathogen in the US is predicted to be a novel mutant virus from an established RNA virus family.
• Effective public health interventions are essential for managing emerging threats.

Conclusions:

• A multi-faceted approach integrating animal surveillance, rapid diagnostic development, antibiotic stewardship, and vaccination is necessary.
• Proactive monitoring and intervention are critical to minimize the impact of future infectious disease outbreaks.
• Understanding the interplay of ecological, microbial, and societal factors is key to predicting and controlling emerging infections.