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Network structure impacts global commodity trade growth and resilience.
Ali Kharrazi1,2, Elena Rovenskaya1,3, Brian D Fath1,4
1Advanced Systems Analysis Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
Plos One
|February 17, 2017
Summary
Global trade networks need efficiency for growth but redundancy for resilience. Highly efficient networks are less resilient to economic shocks, while redundancy enhances stability and recovery.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Network Science
- Sustainable Development
Background:
- Global commodity trade networks are vital for sustainable development.
- Increasing interconnectedness raises questions about network growth and resilience to economic shocks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze global commodity trade flows from 1996-2012.
- To evaluate the relationship between network structure, growth, and resilience to the 2009 economic shock.
Main Methods:
- Information theory-based network flow analysis.
- Examined network efficiency and redundancy.
- Assessed dynamic growth and resilience to economic shocks.
Main Results:
- Network efficiency positively correlates with growth but decreases resilience.
- Higher network redundancy does not impede growth and enhances resilience.
- Redundant systems recover better from economic shocks.
Conclusions:
- Strategies promoting efficiency (e.g., preferential trade agreements) can boost trade growth.
- Strategies increasing redundancy (e.g., free-trade agreements) can improve resilience to shocks.
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