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Why has mortality in England and Wales been increasing? An iterative demographic analysis
Lucinda Hiam1, Danny Dorling2, Dominic Harrison3
11 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine
|February 17, 2017
Summary
Mortality in England and Wales reversed its long-term decline, with 2015 seeing a significant increase in deaths, particularly among the elderly. Dementia was a major reported cause, though interpretation requires caution.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Public Health
- Gerontology
Background:
- The long-term decline in age-standardised mortality in England and Wales reversed in 2011.
- A significant increase in deaths occurred in 2015, reversing a slight fall in mortality rates between 2013 and 2014.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the reasons behind the increase in mortality observed in England and Wales during 2015.
- To analyze the causes and age groups contributing to changes in life expectancy between 2013 and 2015.
Main Methods:
- Iterative demographic analysis of population data in England and Wales.
- Examination of causes and ages at death to determine impact on life expectancy changes.
Main Results:
- Mortality in 2015 was higher than in any year since 2008, with approximately 30,000 excess deaths compared to the 2006-2014 average.
- Life expectancy at ages over 60 declined between 2013 and 2015.
- Individuals over 85 years old were most affected, with dementias identified as a major contributor, though coding practice changes necessitate cautious interpretation.
Conclusions:
- The long-term trend of declining mortality in England and Wales has been reversed.
- Excess deaths are concentrated in the older population, highlighting potential impacts on health and social care systems.
- While dementia was a primary reported cause, the findings require careful interpretation due to diagnostic and coding variations.
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