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Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.

Gerrad D Jones1, Boris Droz1, Peter Greve2

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|February 23, 2017
PubMed
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Global soil Selenium (Se) concentrations are primarily driven by climate-soil interactions, not just soil properties. Climate change may decrease soil Se, increasing deficiency risks worldwide.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Geochemistry
  • Nutritional Science

Background:

  • Micronutrient deficiencies, including trace elements, impact billions globally.
  • Dietary trace element availability is linked to soil concentrations, but global distribution factors remain unclear.
  • Small-scale studies suggest soil physicochemical properties govern trace element concentrations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model recent global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element.
  • To identify key factors controlling global soil Se concentrations.
  • To predict the impact of climate change on soil Se and potential deficiency prevalence.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized 33,241 soil data points for global Se distribution modeling (1980-1999).
  • Analyzed climate-soil interactions as primary drivers of soil Se concentrations.
  • Applied moderate climate-change scenarios (2080-2099) to predict future soil Se levels.

Main Results:

  • Soil Se concentrations are predominantly influenced by climate-soil interactions, contrary to previous small-scale findings.
  • Projected climate change and altered soil organic carbon content will likely decrease soil Se concentrations globally.
  • Agricultural areas are predicted to experience significant reductions in soil Se, potentially exacerbating Se deficiency.

Conclusions:

  • Climate-soil interactions are critical determinants of global Selenium distribution.
  • Future climate change poses a risk of increased Selenium deficiency due to declining soil Se levels.
  • Trace elements with similar soil retention mechanisms may be similarly affected by climate change.