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The 5-Choice Serial Reaction Time Task: A Task of Attention and Impulse Control for Rodents

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Time-Preference Tests Fail to Predict Behavior Related to Self-control.

Kodi B Arfer¹, Christian C Luhmann²

¹UCLA Center for HIV Identification, Prevention, and Treatment Services, University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA, USA.

Frontiers in Psychology

|February 25, 2017

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Time preference tests, used to predict real-world decisions like drug use and saving, show poor predictive accuracy. Current measurement methods may not effectively capture generalized preferences for delayed rewards.

Keywords:

decision making intertemporal choice predictive validity retest reliability self-control

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Area of Science:

Behavioral economics
Psychology
Decision science

Background:

Generalized preferences for delayed rewards theoretically drive choices in patience and self-control.
Previous research linked time preference measurements to choices, but predictive accuracy remains unclear due to flawed analytical methods.
The utility of various time-preference tests and the role of nonstationarity in measurement are not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate the predictive accuracy of different time-preference measurement approaches for real-world decisions.
To assess the reliability and validity of time-preference tests.
To investigate the significance of nonstationarity in measuring time preferences.

Main Methods:

Study 1: Assessed three time-preference measurement approaches with 181 Mechanical Turk users, examining retest reliability, convergent validity, and predictive accuracy for 10 criterion variables.
Study 2: Evaluated another time-preference measurement approach with 7,127 participants from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, assessing relationships with 40 criterion variables.
Statistical analyses were employed to determine associations and predictive accuracy.

Main Results:

Time-preference tests demonstrated decent retest reliability and convergent validity in Study 1.
Despite significant associations between time preferences and criterion variables in both studies, predictive accuracy for real-world decisions was consistently poor.
Study 1 suggested limited value in separately measuring nonstationarity from patience.

Conclusions:

Current time-preference tests have serious limitations in predicting real-world decisions.
Findings challenge the practical utility of existing time-preference measurement tools for applied prediction.
Further research is needed to develop more accurate methods for assessing time preferences and their impact on behavior.