A new methodology for surcharge risk management in urban areas (case study: Gonbad-e-Kavus city)

This research presents a simulation-optimization model for urban flood mitigation integrating Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) with Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) hydraulic model under a curve number-based hydrologic model of low impact development technologies in Gonbad-e-Kavus, a small city in the north of Iran. In the developed model, the best performance of the system relies on the optimal layout and capacity of retention ponds over the study area in order to reduce surcharge from the manholes underlying a set of storm event loads, while the available investment plays a restricting role. Thus, there is a multi-objective optimization problem with two conflicting objectives solved successfully by NSGA-II to find a set of optimal solutions known as the Pareto front. In order to analyze the results, a new factor, investment priority index (IPI), is defined which shows the risk of surcharging over the network and priority of the mitigation actions. The IPI is calculated using the probability of pond selection for candidate locations and average depth of the ponds in all Pareto front solutions. The IPI can help the decision makers to arrange a long-term progressive plan with the priority of high-risk areas when an optimal solution has been selected.