Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Gerontology

Background:

• Accurate mortality and life expectancy forecasts are crucial for planning health services, social support, and pension systems.
• Uncertainty in forecasting model selection necessitates robust projection methods.

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy.
• To incorporate model uncertainty into future projections for 35 industrialized nations.

Main Methods:

• Developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models for probabilistic projections.
• Applied age-specific death rates and life table methods to project mortality and life expectancy to 2030.
• Calculated life expectancy at birth, at age 65, and probability of dying before age 70.

Main Results:

• Life expectancy is projected to increase in all 35 countries (≥65% probability for women, ≥85% for men).
• South Korean women have a high probability (90%) of exceeding 86.7 years by 2030, with a 57% chance of surpassing 90 years.
• The female life expectancy advantage is expected to decrease in most countries, with significant longevity gains attributed to increased survival after age 65.

Conclusions:

• National female life expectancy may surpass 90 years by 2030, challenging previous assumptions.
• Projections indicate continued increases in longevity, underscoring the need for adaptive planning in social services and pensions.