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Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.

Colleen T Webb1, Matthew Ferrari2, Tom Lindström3

  • 1Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.

Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|February 27, 2017
PubMed
Summary

Integrating multiple animal health models using ensemble modelling and structured decision-making can improve policy decisions. This approach helps identify robust control actions and manage model uncertainty for better disease management, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD).

Keywords:
Disease managementEnsemble modellingFoot and mouth diseasePolicyStructured decision-making

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modelling
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

  • Epidemiological models are crucial decision-support tools in animal health for assessing control strategies.
  • Current frameworks for integrating multiple models into policy decisions are limited.
  • Model uncertainty can significantly impact the reliability of policy recommendations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review and illustrate the application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in animal health epidemiology.
  • To demonstrate how integrating multiple models can enhance decision-making for disease control.
  • To assess the impact of model uncertainty and weighting schemes on policy choices.

Main Methods:

  • Review of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making principles.
  • Application of structured decision-making to compare control actions across three foot and mouth disease (FMD) models.
  • Development of a methodology for weighting model outputs to assess impact on control action selection.

Main Results:

  • Structured decision-making identified robustly supported control actions and highlighted those sensitive to model uncertainty in FMD scenarios.
  • Different weighting schemes for model outputs demonstrated a potential impact on the final choice of control action.
  • The study illustrates the practical application of integrating multiple epidemiological models.

Conclusions:

  • Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making offer a promising framework for improving evidence-based decision-making in animal health.
  • These integrated approaches can provide more robust information for policy, aiding in the management of infectious disease outbreaks.
  • Further development is needed to fully realize the potential of these methods in epidemiological applications.