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Strategic aspects of cyberattack, attribution, and blame
Benjamin Edwards1, Alexander Furnas2, Stephanie Forrest3,4
1Information Security Group, IBM Research, Yorktown Heights, NY 10598; benjamin.edwards@ibm.com axe@umich.edu.
Summary
Cyber conflict strategy hinges on attribution and punishment. A game-theoretic model reveals how attacker vulnerability and victim knowledge shape responses, influencing stable peace or escalating conflict.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- International Relations
- Game Theory
Background:
- Cyber conflict is a frequent and significant threat.
- Victims must decide whether to retaliate based on attribution and punishment capabilities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a game-theoretic model analyzing strategic choices in cyber conflict.
- To explore factors influencing the stability of peace in cyberspace.
Main Methods:
- A game-theoretic model was constructed.
- The model incorporates attacker vulnerability, victim knowledge, payoffs, and player beliefs.
- Analysis covers conditions for stable peace, attack tolerance, attribution asymmetry, and third-party interference.
Main Results:
- The victim's optimal strategy depends on a complex interplay of factors including attacker vulnerability and attribution certainty.
- Asymmetric attribution capabilities can destabilize peace.
- Accidents or third-party actions can disrupt cyber peace.
Conclusions:
- Understanding the 'blame game' dynamics is crucial for managing cyber conflict.
- Policy decisions regarding cyber conflict response must consider attribution capabilities and potential escalation pathways.
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