Dueling biological and social contagions

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Network Science
• Public Health

Background:

• Existing models of disease spread in social networks often overlook interactions between simultaneous contagions.
• The interplay between biological (e.g., influenza) and social (e.g., vaccination) phenomena requires novel modeling approaches.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a "dueling contagions" model to understand the co-spread of influenza and flu vaccination.
• To investigate how social network structures influence the spread of both disease and protective behaviors.

Main Methods:

• Development of a mathematical model for "dueling contagions" considering both biological and social spread.
• Application of the model to unique time series data from the 2009 H1N1 epidemic, including social network information.

Main Results:

• Individuals with more social connections were more likely to be vaccinated.
• Exposure to vaccinated friends or friends with the flu increased vaccination likelihood.
• The model suggests current epidemiological models may underestimate contagion potential (R0).

Conclusions:

• The spread of vaccination (social contagion) can be as, or more, influential than the biological spread of influenza.
• Personalized public health interventions, like social vaccination reminders and flu alerts, could significantly mitigate epidemics.
• Understanding the coevolution of interacting contagions is crucial for effective epidemic control.