Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Economics
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Agricultural productivity's sensitivity to climate is not fully quantified.
• Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in US agriculture has grown for decades, largely attributed to technology.
• Previous studies focused on local climate impacts on partial productivity, not national-level TFP.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the relationship between regional climate variations and national agricultural TFP growth.
• To assess the future impact of projected climate change on US agricultural productivity.
• To provide an empirical basis for policy-making by linking climate effects to economic outcomes.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes.
• Identification of key climate indices influencing TFP.
• Development of a multivariate regression model to predict agricultural TFP growth based on historical climate relationships.

Main Results:

• Temperature and precipitation in specific regions and seasons explain approximately 70% of TFP growth variations from 1981-2010.
• Technological improvements have historically offset climate impacts on TFP.
• Projected climate changes could lead to an average annual TFP decline of 2.84% to 4.34% under medium to high emissions scenarios.

Conclusions:

• Climate variations significantly influence national agricultural TFP.
• Without technological advancements, projected climate change could reduce US agricultural TFP to pre-1980 levels by 2050.
• This research offers an objective resource for policy-making by linking regional climate to national economic outcomes.