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Uncertainty assessment method for the Cs-137 fallout inventory and penetration depth.

G N Papadakos1, D J Karangelos1, N P Petropoulos1

  • 1Nuclear Engineering Laboratory, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Athens, Greece.

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity
|March 14, 2017
PubMed
Summary

This study assessed uncertainty in measuring cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) soil contamination in Greece twenty years after Chernobyl. Spatial variability significantly impacts ¹³⁷Cs inventory and depth measurements, highlighting the need for careful sampling strategies.

Keywords:
(137)Cs depth distribution(137)Cs inventory spatial variabilityChernobylRadioactive depositionSemivariogramSoil sampling

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Radioactivity
  • Soil Science
  • Radiological Assessment

Background:

  • Cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) deposition in Greece from the Chernobyl accident (1986) necessitated long-term monitoring.
  • Understanding ¹³⁷Cs distribution and migration in soil is crucial for environmental and health risk assessment.
  • Quantifying uncertainty in measurement is vital for reliable environmental monitoring data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate ¹³⁷Cs inventory and depth migration in Greek soils 20 years post-Chernobyl.
  • To investigate and quantify uncertainty components in the soil sampling and analysis process.
  • To assess the impact of spatial variability on ¹³⁷Cs measurements.

Main Methods:

  • Soil samples collected in 2007 from 20 locations in Greece, targeting areas of known high ¹³⁷Cs deposition.
  • Detailed soil core sampling using a Cartesian grid at one high-deposition site and single/pair cores at others.
  • Application of error propagation laws and semivariance analysis to evaluate uncertainty components.

Main Results:

  • Spatial variability of ¹³⁷Cs inventory was the dominant uncertainty component (approx. 19% for single core sampling).
  • Activity measurement process was a significant secondary uncertainty source.
  • ¹³⁷Cs penetration depth exhibited higher uncertainty (up to 34%) due to spatial variability in single core samples.

Conclusions:

  • Single core soil sampling for ¹³⁷Cs inventory and depth estimation, using similar methodologies, yields substantial uncertainty.
  • High spatial variability in ¹³⁷Cs distribution is a critical factor influencing measurement accuracy.
  • Optimized sampling strategies and acknowledging inherent uncertainties are essential for reliable radiological assessments.