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Uncertainty assessment method for the Cs-137 fallout inventory and penetration depth
G N Papadakos1, D J Karangelos1, N P Petropoulos1
1Nuclear Engineering Laboratory, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Athens, Greece.
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity
|March 14, 2017
Summary
This study assessed uncertainty in measuring cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) soil contamination in Greece twenty years after Chernobyl. Spatial variability significantly impacts ¹³⁷Cs inventory and depth measurements, highlighting the need for careful sampling strategies.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Radioactivity
- Soil Science
- Radiological Assessment
Background:
- Cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) deposition in Greece from the Chernobyl accident (1986) necessitated long-term monitoring.
- Understanding ¹³⁷Cs distribution and migration in soil is crucial for environmental and health risk assessment.
- Quantifying uncertainty in measurement is vital for reliable environmental monitoring data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate ¹³⁷Cs inventory and depth migration in Greek soils 20 years post-Chernobyl.
- To investigate and quantify uncertainty components in the soil sampling and analysis process.
- To assess the impact of spatial variability on ¹³⁷Cs measurements.
Main Methods:
- Soil samples collected in 2007 from 20 locations in Greece, targeting areas of known high ¹³⁷Cs deposition.
- Detailed soil core sampling using a Cartesian grid at one high-deposition site and single/pair cores at others.
- Application of error propagation laws and semivariance analysis to evaluate uncertainty components.
Main Results:
- Spatial variability of ¹³⁷Cs inventory was the dominant uncertainty component (approx. 19% for single core sampling).
- Activity measurement process was a significant secondary uncertainty source.
- ¹³⁷Cs penetration depth exhibited higher uncertainty (up to 34%) due to spatial variability in single core samples.
Conclusions:
- Single core soil sampling for ¹³⁷Cs inventory and depth estimation, using similar methodologies, yields substantial uncertainty.
- High spatial variability in ¹³⁷Cs distribution is a critical factor influencing measurement accuracy.
- Optimized sampling strategies and acknowledging inherent uncertainties are essential for reliable radiological assessments.
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