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Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
Delphine Clara Zemp1,2, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner2,3, Henrique M J Barbosa4
1Department of Geography, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Rudower Chaussee 16, 12489 Berlin, Germany.
Nature Communications
|March 14, 2017
Summary
Amazon rainforest dieback risk escalates with intensifying dry seasons. While not predicting total forest loss, the study reveals frequent droughts can destabilize large areas due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Reduced rainfall poses a significant threat to forest ecosystems, potentially leading to dieback.
- Forest loss can exacerbate regional droughts, creating a dangerous vegetation-atmosphere feedback loop.
- The impact of this feedback on Amazon forest stability remains uncertain.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the nonlinear relationship between dry-season intensification and the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss.
- To assess the potential consequences of vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks on Amazon forest stability under drought conditions.
- To quantify the extent of potential forest loss due to self-amplification under severe drought scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a novel complex-network approach to model Amazon forest patches.
- Linked forest patches using observation-based atmospheric water fluxes.
- Analyzed the impact of dry-season intensification and rainfall reduction on forest stability.
Main Results:
- The risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification.
- Increased heterogeneity in forest patch responses to reduced rainfall can mitigate self-amplified forest loss.
- Under Last Glacial Maximum-like drought conditions, 10-13% of the Amazon basin could experience additional forest loss.
- Projected end-of-century rainfall changes may not cause complete Amazon dieback but could destabilize large areas.
Conclusions:
- Frequent extreme drought events pose a substantial risk to the stability of large parts of the Amazon forest.
- Vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks can significantly amplify forest loss during intensified dry seasons.
- While complete dieback is not projected, significant destabilization is a concern under future climate scenarios.
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