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Multicandidate Elections: Aggregate Uncertainty in the Laboratory.

Laurent Bouton1, Micael Castanheira2, Aniol Llorente-Saguer3

  • 1Georgetown University, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ECARES, SBS-EM), CEPR and NBER.

Games and Economic Behavior
|March 17, 2017
PubMed
Summary

Aggregate uncertainty in elections encourages sincere voting, challenging traditional models like Duverger's Law. This finding suggests that voter coordination is less likely when the electorate's preferences are unclear.

Keywords:
Aggregate UncertaintyExperimentsMulticandidate ElectionsPluralityRational Voter Model

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Social Psychology

Background:

  • The rational-voter model's predictions, including the paradox of voting and Duverger's Law, often conflict with real-world election outcomes.
  • These discrepancies may stem from the assumption of no aggregate uncertainty regarding voter preferences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide direct empirical evidence on the impact of aggregate uncertainty in multicandidate elections.
  • To investigate whether aggregate uncertainty promotes non-Duverger's Law equilibria in plurality voting systems.

Main Methods:

  • A theory-based experimental approach was employed to simulate election scenarios.
  • The study compared voting behavior under conditions with and without aggregate uncertainty.

Main Results:

  • Aggregate uncertainty significantly favors the emergence of sincere voting as a predominant strategy.
  • In the absence of aggregate uncertainty, voters overwhelmingly coordinate on a single candidate, leading to a near-certain win.

Conclusions:

  • The findings support theoretical predictions that aggregate uncertainty alters voting dynamics.
  • The presence of aggregate uncertainty can explain deviations from Duverger's Law in plurality elections.