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Measuring complexity in Brazilian economic crises.

Letícia P D Mortoza1, José R C Piqueira1

  • 1Laboratório de Automaçãoe Controle/Escola Politécnica, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida Prof. Luciano Gualberto, travessa 3 - 158, São Paulo-Brazil.

Plos One
|March 17, 2017
PubMed
Summary

Capital flows impact foreign exchange rates and stock prices. Complexity measures reveal potential links between these macroeconomic variables and economic crises in Brazil.

Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Econometrics
  • Financial Markets

Background:

  • Capital flows significantly influence macroeconomic parameters like foreign exchange rates and stock prices.
  • Economic crises can arise from volatility in capital flows triggered by social, political, or economic events.
  • Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and crisis events is crucial for economic stability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between foreign exchange rates, stock prices, and economic crisis events.
  • To apply complexity measures, specifically Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) and Shiner-Davison-Landsberg (SDL), to analyze macroeconomic time series.
  • To explore the potential connection between economic events in Brazil and the calculated complexity measures.

Main Methods:

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  • Utilizing the Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure.
  • Employing the Shiner-Davison-Landsberg (SDL) complexity measure.
  • Analyzing temporal series data for the Ibovespa index and the "dollar-real" exchange rate in Brazil.

Main Results:

  • The study calculated LMC and SDL complexity measures for the Ibovespa and "dollar-real" parity.
  • Analysis of the temporal evolution of these complexity measures was performed.
  • Preliminary findings suggest a potential relationship between the complexity measures and significant events in the Brazilian economy.

Conclusions:

  • The complexity measures (LMC and SDL) may serve as indicators for economic events and crises.
  • Further research is warranted to solidify the link between macroeconomic complexity and crisis occurrences.
  • The methodology can be applied to other time series in different economic contexts.