Is the insect or the plant the driving force in the cinnabar moth - Tansy ragwort system?

The interactions between cinnabar moth, Tyria jacobaeae L. and its food plant, tansy ragwort, Senecio jacobaea L. were studied for 4 to 6 years at 9 sites in North America to assess if the herbivore drove the dynamics of the plants or if the plants determined the dynamics of the insects. Cinnabar moth larval density is not closely related to changes in the size and spacing of tansy ragwort plants although high densities of larvae were associated with a high proportion of rosettes the next year. Fluctuating moth populations live in areas where rosettes are small, closely spaced and numerous compared to flowering stem plants. This situation is also associated with greater larval dispersal which may lead to over exploitation of the food supply. The coefficient of variation of both the size of rosettes and the distance between clumps of plants is associated with the coefficient of variation in moth density. This suggests that the plants may be driving the dynamics of the insect populations. The size of the moth egg batches is correlated to the size of the flowering stem plants in the previous year, indicating an adjustment between moth fecundity and food plant size. The conclusion is that environmental factors such as weather and soil type determine to a large degree the characteristics and variation in the plant populations and this in turn controls the dynamics of the insects. The relation of this situation to the biological control of weeds is discussed.