Modeling the dynamics of mountain pine beetle aggregation in a lodgepole pine stand

At least once a year the mountain pine beetle searches for lodgepole pines that provide a suitable habitat for a new brood. After attacking females feed, they produce an attractant pheromone that causes beetles to aggregate and, during outbreaks, to usually mass attack the "focus" tree. Near the completion of mass attack, incoming beetles are repelled and initiate attacks on adjacent "recipient" trees. An understanding of this "switching" process is useful for prescribing measures that minimize beetle damage.A mathematical model was developed to (1) describe beetle aggregation, (2) predict the relation of tree susceptibility and switching to changes in beetle density, (3) provide a structure for current knowledge, and (4) pose questions for further research. The model indicates that a high population density ensures mass aggregation and consequently successful tree colonization and switching. The model also indicates that the number of beetles attracted per attacking beetle differs from tree to tree, possibly depending on resin quality and production and/or the local flying density of beetles. Field and model results indicate that tree size appears to affect the repellence of beetles, suggesting that the attack density or the visual attractiveness of large trees is a factor. Further research could be directed at our assumptions on host resistance, repellence, pheromone emission rates, threshold concentrations, navigation, and pheromone dispersion.