Development of a predictive model for 6 month survival in patients with venous thromboembolism and solid malignancy...

Our purpose was to develop a predictive model for short-term survival (i.e. <6 months) following inferior vena cava filter placement in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) and solid malignancy.

Clinical and laboratory parameters were retrospectively reviewed for patients with solid malignancy who received a filter between January 2009 and December 2011 at a tertiary care cancer center. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess variables associated with 6 month survival following filter placement in patients with VTE and solid malignancy. Significant variables were used to generate a predictive model.

397 patients with solid malignancy received a filter during the study period. Three variables were associated with 6 month survival: (1) serum albumin [hazard ratio (HR) 0.496, P < 0.0001], (2) recent or planned surgery (<30 days) (HR 0.409, P < 0.0001), (3) TNM staging (stage 1 or 2 vs. stage 4, HR 0.177, P = 0.0001; stage 3 vs. stage 4, HR 0.367, P = 0.0002). These variables were used to develop a predictive model to estimate 6 month survival with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.815, sensitivity of 0.782, and specificity of 0.715.

Six month survival in patients with VTE and solid malignancy requiring filter placement can be predicted from three patient variables. Our predictive model could be used to help physicians decide whether a permanent or retrievable filter may be more appropriate as well as to assess the risks and benefits for filter retrieval within the context of survival longevity in patients with cancer.