Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird

Understanding the factors that limit and regulate wildlife populations requires insight into demographic and environmental processes acting throughout the annual cycle. Here, we combine multi-year tracking data of individual birds with a 26-year demographic study of a migratory songbird to evaluate the relative effects of density and weather at the breeding and wintering grounds on population growth rate. Our results reveal clear support for opposing forces of winter temperature and breeding density driving population dynamics. Above-average temperatures at the wintering grounds lead to higher population growth, primarily through their strong positive effects on survival. However, population growth is regulated over the long term by strong negative effects of breeding density on both fecundity and adult male survival. Such knowledge of how year-round factors influence population growth, and the demographic mechanisms through which they act, will vastly improve our ability to predict species responses to environmental change and develop effective conservation strategies for migratory animals.