Transitions to and from long-term care facilities and length of completed stay: Reuse of population-based survey data

This article estimates length of completed stay and resident transitions for RAC residents over 12 months in Auckland.

Data from a census-type survey of nursing home residents (n = 6816) were linked with national mortality data. Transitions described include entry to residential aged care (RAC), movement between RAC facilities and deaths.

When reweighted for missing data and adjusted for length bias, an estimated 9676 residents (95% CI 8368-10 985) used care over a 12-month period. Half of new residents entered RAC via an acute hospital. Median survival was 2.0 years; 17% died within 3 months, and 23% survived over 5 years.

Cross-sectional survey data, when appropriately adjusted for length-biased sampling, enable estimates of period prevalence and transition probabilities that are useful for simulation studies. Given population ageing and the costs of ongoing care, these results can inform policy and planning for long-term care needs of older people.