Macrophage density in early surveillance biopsies predicts future renal transplant function

Inflammation impairs renal allograft survival but is difficult to quantify by eye at low densities. Here we measured leukocyte abundance in early surveillance biopsies by digital image analysis to test for a role of chemokine receptor genotypes and analyze the predictive value of leukocyte subsets to allograft function. In six-week surveillance biopsies, T-cell (CD3), B-cell (CD20), macrophage (CD68), and dendritic cell (CD209) densities were assessed in whole slide scans. Renal cortical CD3, CD20, and CD68 were significantly higher in histologic rejection. The CCR2 V64I genotype was associated with lower CD3 and CD209 densities. Above-median CD68 density was significantly associated with lower combined patient and graft survival with a hazard ratio of 3.5 (95% confidence interval 1.1-11.0). Both CD20 and CD68 densities inversely correlated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) four years after transplantation. Additionally, CD68 correlated with eGFR loss. Among histological measurements including a complete Banff classification, only CD68 density was a significant predictor of an eGFR under 30ml/min after four years (odds ratio 7.4, 1.8-31.0) and part of the best eGFR prediction set in a multivariable linear regression analysis of multiple clinical and pathologic parameters. In a second independent cohort, the original CD68 median maintained its discriminative power for survival and eGFR. Thus, digital high-resolution assessment of CD68⁺ leukocyte infiltration significantly improves prognostic value of early renal transplant biopsies.