Aquatic ecotoxicological models and their applicability in Arctic regions

Area of Science:

• Ecotoxicology
• Environmental Risk Assessment
• Arctic Ecology

Background:

• Dose-response modeling is vital for ecological risk assessment but lacks data for Arctic aquatic species.
• Limited toxicity data hinders establishing concentration-effect relationships for lethal, sub-lethal, and carcinogenic effects.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review the suitability of in-silico ecotoxicological methods for Arctic scenarios.
• To propose a novel approach for quantifying toxicant exposure effects in Arctic aquatic species.

Main Methods:

• Review of in-silico ecotoxicological methods, including statistical (QSARs, ICE) and empirical models (Haber's law, Ostwald's equation).
• Evaluation of mechanistic approaches: toxicokinetic (TK) and toxicodynamic (TD) analysis for interspecies extrapolation.
• Proposal of a novel approach combining TK and TD models to predict cellular damage and metabolite interactions.

Main Results:

• Mechanistic TK and TD approaches are more suitable for interspecies extrapolation than statistical or empirical models.
• Proposed novel approach models cellular damage via TD and physiology/metabolite interactions via TK.
• This integrated approach provides more reliable toxicity estimates for Arctic aquatic species.

Conclusions:

• Addressing data gaps in Arctic aquatic species' toxicity is essential for accurate ecological risk assessment.
• Mechanistic modeling offers a promising solution for estimating dose-response relationships in data-poor Arctic environments.
• The proposed TK-TD modeling framework enhances the reliability of ecological risk assessments for the Arctic.